Third wave of COVID-19 may hit India in August, peak in September: SBI report

Based on historical trends, COVID-19 cases can start rising by the second fortnight of August with peak cases at least a month later, said the SBI Research report

India may see the much-feared third wave of the coronavirus pandemic from the middle of August and the COVID-19 cases would peak in September, said a report by the State Bank of India (SBI) while the country is still fighting with the second wave.

The report, “COVID-19: the race to finishing line,” was published by SBI Research on July 5, reported News18.

The report stated that projections are based on “historical trends,” while saying that the country reached the peak of the second wave on May 7.

According to the SBI report, the global data shows that on average, peak COVID-19 cases reached during the third wave are nearly twice or 1.7 times those from the second wave of the pandemic.

The report said that vaccination against COVID-19 is the only saviour. India has started administering over 40 lakh vaccine doses per day, it said.

On July 5, More than 45.82 lakh vaccine doses were administered in the country, the Union Health Ministry’s latest provisional report suggested. With that, the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country crossed 35.75 crore, it said.

The SBI report comes days after a scientist of a government panel tasked with modelling COVID-19 cases said that the possible third wave of coronavirus pandemic infection can hit its peak between October-November if COVID-appropriate behaviour is not followed.

Although the third wave may see half the daily COVID-19 cases recorded during the second surge, it can spread faster if any new virulent variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerges, said Manindra Agarwal who is working with the Sutra Model– the mathematical projection of the COVID-19 trajectory.

The panel was formed by the Department of Science and Technology in 2020 to forecast the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models.

Besides Agarwal, who is a scientist with IIT-Kanpur, the panel also has M Vidyasagar, another scientist with IIT-Hyderabad, and Lt. Gen Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief (Medical) of Integrated Defence Staff, as members. The panel had earlier received flak for not predicting the ferocity of the second wave of COVID-19 in the country.