The rapid advance of opposition forces in northern Syria has raised significant concerns about the stability of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, complicating the strategic interests of his key backers, Iran and Russia.
Syria’s over-decade-long civil war has taken a dramatic shift, with the opposition group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Islamist factions, making notable territorial gains in the north.
In just 72 hours last week, HTS launched a powerful offensive, capturing Aleppo and advancing toward the central city of Hama. This sudden progress has dealt a major blow to Assad’s government, which had seemed poised to solidify its control over the country.
In recent years, the Syrian government’s position appeared increasingly secure, bolstered by military support from Russia and Iranian-backed militias, including Hezbollah. Assad had regained control of most major urban centers, and the regime’s survival seemed assured. This was true even as Kurdish and Turkish-backed forces controlled large parts of the country, and Syria faced ongoing airstrikes from Israel and the U.S.
The recent offensive by HTS – formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra and once affiliated with al-Qaeda – has disrupted the assumption that Assad’s regime was firmly in control.
In an unexpected turn, opposition forces launched a coordinated attack from Idlib province, the last stronghold of anti-regime groups. Within days, they rapidly advanced through northern Syria, with reports suggesting that government forces were buckling under the pressure.
This new setback underscores that the war in Syria is far from over. While the Assad regime still controls much of the country, these developments highlight that the battle for Syria remains fiercely contested.
Social media posts from Syrian accounts have shown scenes of chaos in the north, with the situation growing increasingly dire for government forces. Rebel fighters have also made significant progress toward Hama, a city with historical significance due to the brutal crackdown by Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, in 1982. That massacre, which saw thousands of opponents killed, marked the end of a major uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood. The growing parallels between then and now have only intensified the sense of crisis.
As the opposition forces regain momentum, the Assad regime’s key international supporters—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—are facing growing challenges of their own. The armed opposition has taken advantage of the significant damage inflicted by Israel on Iran’s “axis of resistance,” particularly targeting Hezbollah.
Both Hezbollah and Russia are now considerably weaker than they were during the peak of their support for Assad’s regime in 2015 and 2016, when their military intervention played a crucial role in suppressing the insurgency. While they remain committed to backing Assad, the scope of their assistance has been limited by other priorities and internal difficulties.
Russia, fully engaged in its war in Ukraine, continues to maintain military assets in Syria, including warplanes, helicopters, and troops stationed at approximately twenty bases. Much of Russia’s earlier contribution to the Syrian conflict involved indiscriminate airstrikes on rebel-held areas, with Hezbollah providing ground support. Despite this ongoing presence, Russia’s air power alone is unlikely to be sufficient to turn the tide against the opposition. The Hmeimim airbase will likely remain a key operational hub, but it cannot replicate the decisive ground presence that Hezbollah once provided.
In sum, while Russia and Hezbollah will continue to support Assad’s regime, their capacity to do so at the level of prior years is significantly diminished, and they are now more distracted by their respective challenges.
Assad’s forces are struggling to combat the insurgency, and Hezbollah is no longer able to deploy the same level of support as before. This leaves Russia in a difficult position. However, Moscow is likely to continue prioritizing its presence in Syria due to strategic interests.
Meanwhile, Iran is facing its own challenges. According to Benny Sabati, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tehran’s focus on countering Israel has significantly drained its resources. Iran has suffered heavy losses in terms of senior commanders within groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. As a result, Iran enters the Syrian conflict in a weakened state, with little capacity to bolster Assad’s regime. The situation has worsened with Iran itself becoming a target of attacks, including the killing of key commanders and the recent capture of its consulate in Aleppo.
Sabati emphasized that Iran’s shift in focus over the past two to three years—from Syria to Israel—has had serious consequences. This shift has allowed insurgents to gain more ground in Syria, and the “genie is out of the bottle” in terms of the rebellion.
In an attempt to address the crisis, Iran turned to Russia for assistance. On December 1, Iran’s foreign minister met with Russia’s foreign minister to request support. However, Sabati suggested that the visit had little impact. “He can encourage, but they don’t have much to offer,” he said.
Ultimately, the regional outcome hinges on Russia’s actions. If Russia intervenes decisively, it could shift the balance and suppress the rebellion. However, if Russia remains passive, both Iran and the Assad regime will likely face significant weakening.